CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Juno, Lucy, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-10-03T17:08:34Z
## Message ID: 20241003-AL-004
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-10-03T12:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~822 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 39 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 3/-20 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Juno (glancing blow), Lucy, STEREO A, and Mars (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CME will reach Lucy at 2024-10-06T03:54Z and STEREO A at 2024-10-05T22:13Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Juno at 2024-10-17T00:00Z and Mars at 2024-10-07T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-10-06T03:43Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241003_164300_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2024-10-03T12:48:00-CME-001) is associated with X9.0 flare from Active Region 3842 (S15W05) with ID 2024-10-03T12:08:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-10-03T12:18Z (see notifications 20241003-AL-001, 20241003-AL-002).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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